Bayesian tools for product and growth decisions.
Decide whether a variant won, what an experiment is worth running, and whether churn is outrunning acquisition — with uncertainty you can show a stakeholder.
Questions these tools answer
- Did variant B really beat A, and by how much?
- Is this experiment worth its cost before we run it?
- Where does steady acquisition against steady churn level off?
- What is a customer worth against what winning them cost?
Instruments
- Bayesian A/B Test Calculator
- A/B Test Calculator with Historical Data
- Customer Churn Simulator
- Customer Value Calculator
- Ceiling Calculator
- Sample Size Checker
- Bayesian Innovation Options Simulator
- Usage Count Estimator
- Call Coach
- Beta-Binomial Calculator
- Expert Prior Builder
- Rating Estimator
- Time-to-Event Explorer
- Weighted Decision Matrix
- DAG Sketchpad
- Posting Time Estimator
- Conjunction Calculator
Articles
- How do you use prior information in an A/B test?
- How do you reuse earlier A/B tests as a prior?
- How much is an experiment worth before you run it?
- Why does customer growth level off when sign-ups stay steady?
- How do you turn expert opinions into a prior?
- How do you estimate component life when some units are still running?