Bayesian tools for competitive and market analysis.
Weigh what a rival's move could mean, compare options against criteria you chose, and estimate what you cannot observe directly.
Questions these tools answer
- What could that announcement mean, and what would tell the readings apart?
- Which option wins on the criteria that matter, and does it survive a reweighting?
- What is a product's true average rating, given a handful of reviews?
- How large is the rival, from what we can see of it?
- How much can a rival still produce from the stock it has?
Instruments
- Competing Hypotheses
- Weighted Decision Matrix
- Rating Estimator
- Serial-Number Estimator
- Stockpile Pipeline Estimator
- Usage Count Estimator
- Bayesian Innovation Options Simulator
- Customer Value Calculator
- Beta-Binomial Calculator
- Expert Prior Builder
- Collection Planner
- Key Player Removal
- DAG Sketchpad
Articles
- Is the winner of a weighted decision matrix really the best?
- How much is an experiment worth before you run it?
- How many ratings before an average means anything?
- How do you tell which explanation the evidence favours?
- What is the German tank problem, and how do you solve it?
- How do you estimate how many people a contractor keeps on a site?